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August 2018: Lok Sabha Seats State Wise Vulnerable Seats Report

By Crowdwisdom | August 11, 2018

We have chosen 25 of the most vulnerable seats in the country. These are seats that have won by BJP or the opposition quite narrowly. We then got our predictors to predict the outcome of each of these seats. These 25 seats will tell us which way the election is going in 2019. The greater the predicted loss for BJP amongst these seats, higher the chances that they will lose 2019.

2019 - 25 Marginal Seats Predictions Thread. It is still open for voting

1. Ladakh - Trending BJP currently

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2. Mahasamund - Trending BJP

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3. Korba - Trending BJP

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4. Sambhal - Trending SP - Switched from BJP

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5. Lohardaga - Trending BJP

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6. Satna - Trending Strong BJP

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7. Hoshiarpur - Trending Congress- Switched from BJP

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8. Davanagere - Trending Strong BJP

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9. Mangaldoi - Trending BJP

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10. Raiganj - Unclear (CPM Seat)

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11. Hingoli - Unclear (Congress Seat)

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12. Nabarangpur - Trending Strong BJP (Switched from BJD)

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13. Raichur - Trending BJP

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14. Raigad - Trending BJP (Shiv Sena Seat) - Alliance Confusion

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15. Chikkodi - Trending Congress

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16. Sundargarh - Trending Strong BJP

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17. Madhubani - Unclear

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18. Rampur - Unclear

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19. Mysore - Trending Congress/ Congress-JDS (BJP Seat)

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20. Bargarh - Trending BJP (BJD Seat)

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21. Kakinada - Trending YSRCP (TDP Seat)

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22. Mahbubnagar - Unclear (TRS Seat)

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23. Vadakara - Unclear (Congress Seat)

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24. Anand - Trending BJP

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25. Asansol - Trending BJP

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Summary

BJP - 13(-3)

Others - 5 (+3)

Unclear - 7

Overall, BJP seems to be losing seats in UP and a little in Karnataka and gaining in Odisha. This ties in with the overall narrative. Still, with a loss of just 3 in the most vulnerable seats, BJP is looking comfortable for 2019. Many more of these seats must move away from BJP if the opposition wants to return to power in 2019. 

#LokSabhaElections2019 #loksabhaelectionanalysis #loksabhaopinionpolls2019

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