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Why 2019 election is not like 2004 election - Data Perspective

By Crowdwisdom | October 02, 2018

1. In 2004, BJP entered the election with defending a vote share of 23.8% (won in 1999), it lost 1.6% of that vote in 2004 election. If one applies that formula in 2019, BJP would end with 29.2% vote share. In 2009 when Congress won 206 Seats, it won 28.6% vote share. The BJP vote share base in 2019 offers a much bigger advantage than in 2004

2. In 1999, BJP won 182 Seats. Of these 182 Seats, 65 Seats were won by less than 5% margin. In 2014, BJP won 281 Seats. Of these 282 Seats, just 28 Seats were won by less than 5% margin. In 2009, Congress won 59 out of the 206 Seats with less than 5% advantage. Therefore, BJP’s vote share at Seat level offer tremendous advantage over other parties

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3. In 2004, BJP had just come to power in MP, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and was already in power in Gujarat. That is just 4 big States. In 2019, it will definitely be in power in Assam, Haryana, Jharkhand, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and perhaps more once the December elections are over. The BJP party organisation in 2019 is much stronger than in 2004

4. In 2004 before the Lok Sabha election, Congress, the leading opposition party was in power in the following major States - Assam, Punjab, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Kerala, Karnataka and Delhi. Today it is in power only in Punjab fully and as an alliance partner in Karnataka. The Opposition is substantially weaker than in 2004

5. Between 1999 and 2003, India’s economy had grown less than 7% atleast 3 times. between 2014 and 2018, India’s economy would grow less than 7% just once. The economic growth in 2019 is at a different level than it was in 2004

Overall, the BJP starts with a much bigger advantage in 2019 than it did in 2004. So even if it loses voters in the same manner as it did in 2004, it will probably end up with a substantial seat share which may end up enough to tie up allies like TRS, YSRCP, Shiv Sena, JD(U) and numerous other small parties to form the next Government. The Opposition therefore has a much bigger challenge than in 2004 and therefore will need to offer a significantly better alternative than they did in 2004. 

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Depends on Index of Opposition Unity.


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