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CASTE ARITHMETIC MAY FAVOUR BJP IN RAJASTHAN

By pinkypop | October 11, 2018

An article by BJP Supporter

Barely two months left for the polls, bitter battle expected to be fought in the desert state of india-Rajasthan. Rajasthan hasn't elected an incumbent government since 1993 and despite talks of antiincumbency the Congress may find the going tough without allies. Now that BSP has decided to go it alone in all three states congress is left without any ally .BJP might have lost a few crucial bypolls but the question on everybody's mind is "are the results of byelections an indicator of the mood of the voters across Rajasthan "?

Can Congress come back to power only because some people are angry with Raje? 

Congress needs 8 percent swing in its favour to trounce bjp and such huge swing was seen some 25 years ago .Does the congress have the capability to swing 10 percent swing in their favour as they claim ?

Let's look at the caste arithmetic  -

 

Rajasthan with more than 88.5 percent hindus has 8 percent-gujjars, 4percent -maili, 9 percent rajputs, 15 percent jats - OBCs constituting more than 50 percent and sc/st at arounf 17 percent, brahmins and forward caste at 20-25 percent voters -

 

- Bjp has successfully made inroads into the congress foothold of sc/st's through various schemes.

- Upper caste to vote en masse for bjp despite anti incumbency -Rajputs though some section are unhappy but have traditionally backed bjp and efforts will be made to bring them into the party fold.

- NOT TO FORGET THAT RAJASTHAN IS LARGELY A HINDU STATE AND HINDUTVA POLITICS WORKS . -OBCS SEE MODI AS THEIR OWN LEADER'

 

Amit shah has identified 40 difficult seats and has  directed 5 important people namely V Satish , Punia , Avinash rai khanna ,Shekawart , Arjun Meghwal to look into various districts like FOR INSTANCE Meghwal can be helpful in sc/st regions , Shekawat can placate the unhappy rajput voters. Shekawat at the helm can help bjp in about 10 seats in border districts . Plus there are several factors on why bjp could reverse the trend - Modi still hugely popular in rajasthan -emergence of women voters-women oriented schemes like ujjwala are a hit - return of Kirodi lal Meena shot in the arm for bjp - congress still undecided about cm face - congress peaked too early and now there is a slope , bjp slowly but steadily catching up . UPROOTING BJP IS A UPHILL TASK FOR THE CONGRESS AND MAY NOT BE POSSIBLE WHAT WITH THE HUGE ORAGANISATIONAL NETWORK THAT BJP ENJOYS IN RAJASTHAN.

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