Crowdwisdom prediction data as of this morning (picture below). The TRS which was once leading with 69 seats (around early september) has now fallen to 52 seats.
With the Praja Kutami (People's alliance) all set to announce its candidates, these numbers have increasingly trended towards the alliance.
In terms of vote share, the TRS is expected to win 35% of the vote which is just 1% higher than 2014. This is a big surprise as past polls showed an increasing trend of TDP Voters moving towards TRS. TDP won 15% of the votes in 2014. With TDP joining the Mahakutami allaince. Both the Congress and TDP together are also polling at 2014 levels (at 40%). The addition of TJAC headed by the very respected Kodandaram may also be helping the Praja Kutami.
The BJP too appears to be hurting KCR with about 10% of the vote.
Is this data making sense?
On September 7th Axis India Today released a poll showing 43% support for KCR. The TDP Congress alliance was announced on September 11th and the Candidates list was finalised last week. This has begun to push momentum away from TRS. This is visible on Google Trends too where the gap was the highest on september 6th when the CM announced the elections. Given that CM preference to Vote share was anyway not 100%, the announcement of the TDP alliance took away many TDP voters from KCR. With upper caste voters split across 4 parties, OBCs being aggressively wooed by the Congress and Dalits likely to move towards the alliance in this election,, KCR is increasingly going to be operating on an OBC base which makes up for 50% of the population.
What happens now?
If the prediction is correct, the alliance still needs 9 seats, whereas TRS needs 8 seats. With MIM close to the TRS, TRS+MIM coalition Government appears to be likely. While one waits opinion polls to confirm these predictions, a potential TRS+MIM Government will hurt both TRS (ironically) and the Praja Kutami. More Muslim voters will find the MIM and TRS very attractive abandoning the People's Alliance while many Hindu voters may abandon TRS which may hurt the TRS.
Who will be the biggest winner of all this? BJP.
BJP will gain upper caste votes from both sides should there be a possibility of a TRS-MIM Coalition. The MIM's reputation amongst Hindu Voters is very poor given its history and all their recent utterances. It is not that voters did not know that KCR was close to the MIM, the new information is KCR being fully dependent on them. That will change the dynamic in Telangana. This does not mean BJP will form the Government, it just means they will move up in terms of vote share like in Kerala.
Any issues with this hypothesis?
The Problem with this controversial hypothesis is the Crowdwisdom prediction itself. As we mentioned yesterday, we are not getting enough TRS people to predict the election. This may be a function of poor online support but it is a little unusual. So it is possible that our prediction is biased but we really don't know for sure either. With election still some 40 days away, Telangana too is now turning out to be an exciting election.
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Cover Pic Image Source: The News Minute