Madhya Pradesh
Post the BJP candidate announcements, BJP is up by 4 seats indicating a satisfaction with the choices
BJP - 113 (+4 over last 5 days)
INC - 103 (-3)
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CrowdWisdom's members average error rate for ruling party in past election is 13.5% (Higher than actual result). There is no logic that this error will be replicated but it is good to know information
Telangana
The official announcement of Congress-TDP alliance has given a small bump to TRS
TRS - 54 (+2 over last 2 days)
INC - 43 (-1 over last 2 days)
TDP - 6 (-1 over last two days)
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Chhattisgarh
The candidate announcements have hurt Congress party. All the gans have gone to BSP and Janata Congress
BJP - 43 (No change in last few days)
Congress - 37 (-2 since candidate announcements)
BSP+JC - 8 (+2 since Congress candidate announcements
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Rajasthan
No change in Status
BJP - 85
Congress - 100
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Is Modi an X-Factor?
The latest survey by India Today released yesterday confirms that Modi indeed is an X-Factor in BJP ruled States. So it is clear than when Mr. Modi Campaigns he will add another 5-6% seats to the BJP.
Madhya Pradesh - Revised to 125, correct for incumbent over prediction = 110 Seats
Chhattisgarh - Revised to 47, correct for incumbent over prediction = 41 Seats
Rajasthan - Revised 93, correct for incumbent over prediction = 82 Seats
What this data suggests is that the chances of a coalition goverment are high in 3 out of the 4 States - Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Telangana. This will be a peculiar scenario going forward
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