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Update: Candidate announcements helped BJP, hurt Congress

By Crowdwisdom | November 03, 2018

Madhya Pradesh

Post the BJP candidate announcements, BJP is up by 4 seats indicating a satisfaction with the choices

BJP - 113 (+4 over last 5 days)

INC - 103 (-3)

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CrowdWisdom's members average error rate for ruling party in past election is 13.5% (Higher than actual result). There is no logic that this error will be replicated but it is good to know information

Telangana

The official announcement of Congress-TDP alliance has given a small bump to TRS

TRS - 54 (+2 over last 2 days)

INC - 43 (-1 over last 2 days)

TDP - 6 (-1 over last two days)

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Chhattisgarh

The candidate announcements have hurt Congress party. All the gans have gone to BSP and Janata Congress

BJP - 43 (No change in last few days)

Congress - 37 (-2 since candidate announcements)

BSP+JC - 8 (+2 since Congress candidate announcements

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Rajasthan

No change in Status

BJP - 85

Congress - 100

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Is Modi an X-Factor?

The latest survey by India Today released yesterday confirms that Modi indeed is an X-Factor in BJP ruled States. So it is clear than when Mr. Modi Campaigns he will add another 5-6% seats to the BJP. 

Madhya Pradesh - Revised to 125, correct for incumbent over prediction = 110 Seats

Chhattisgarh - Revised to 47, correct for incumbent over prediction = 41 Seats

Rajasthan - Revised 93, correct for incumbent over prediction = 82 Seats

What this data suggests is that the chances of a coalition goverment are high in 3 out of the 4 States - Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Telangana. This will be a peculiar scenario going forward

 

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