Modi Effect in Karnataka: No Surge Yet
By Crowdwisdom | May 07, 2018
Over the last two days, the forecast for BJP continues to be below 100. It had gone below 100 in the 3rd week of April and then went up.
But as we discussed yesterday, non-BJP forecasters seem to be gradually shifting towards BJP as they provide more favourable responses for the BJP. Within the non-BJP segment, forecasters who seem to classify themselves as Independent/Others or JD(S) might be more inclined to say BJP is improving. That said, BJP forecasters also seem to be getting more conservative about their chances. This is a little strange and the only explanation we can get is that newest forecasters are probably defectors from other parties.
One of the conversations around social media and even ground reports is that there is a surge for the BJP but it is unclear which segment has defected to the BJP, from where and why? That said we are unable to see a surge in the data so far though there appears to be a twist for sure. With four days to go, we will keep track of the micro trends to see if the minor swing will translate into a major swing. Please continue forecasting