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Jobs: Madhya Pradesh worst, Telangana best amongst election States

By Crowdwisdom | November 11, 2018

The Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation has been releasing payroll data (surrogate of jobs created) using EPF/ESI and NPS enrolment data. There are many arguments in favour and against the usage of this data. However, I am making an assumption that this data however accurate is comparable across the 4 major election bound States. The data is sourced from here.

Total Number of Jobs Created between Sept 2017 to August 2018

Telangana - 340999 (Share is 4.7%, Pop Share is 2.9%)

Rajasthan - 226449 (Share is 3.1%, Pop Share is 5.7%)

Madhya Pradesh - 208103 (Share is 2.8%, Pop Share is 6%)

Chhattisgarh - 95192 (Share is 1.3%, Pop Share is 2.1%)

Adjusting for Population, the ranks are as follows

Telangana

Chhattisgarh

Rajasthan

Madhya Pradesh

So it is clear that Telangana is the best performing State as far as job creation is concerned

Then we look at momentum, which States are doing getting better and which States are getting worse?

In 2015-16, each State's share of Paying EPF accounts was as follows

Rajasthan - 3.1% in 2015-16, Last 12 months (2.3%)

Chhattisgarh - 1.3% in 2015-16, Last 12 months (1%)

Madhya Pradesh - 2.4% in 2015-16, Last 12 months (2.8%)

Telangana - 6.4% in 2015-16, Last 12 months (4.7%)

When you look at momentum, Rajasthan has the best positive momentum and Telangana the worst

Combining Job creation plus momentum, one would rank as follows

Telangana (simply because it still outperforms versus its population share)

Chhattisgarh (Second on both)

Rajasthan (Share still low but good momentum)

Madhya Pradesh (Low Share, Low momentum)

Issues with this analysis

While there appears to be concerted effort to remove duplications in the EPF data, there is no guarantee that all duplication has been removed.

We have considered 2011 census data and that too the whole population. Both Chhattisgarh and Telangana have low fertility rates, their actual performance could be slightly better if we considered the latest population numbers

Summary

While there have been limited polls in Telangana, our prediction suggests a close race. The slowing momentum may not have been very helpful. Chhattisgarh seat predictions are increasingly heading towards all time high levels because momentum is positive, however vote share is likely to be lower as Chhattisgarh is still not producing jobs in line with the population. Rajasthan is picking up momentum but perhaps quite late in the day. Madhya Pradesh is the most interesting of all the four States. All surveys and our predictions are increasingly trending towards a small majority for BJP but it remains to be seen if they can hold out 3 weeks from today.

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